Obtidas por uma "dupla nikon" (microscópio e máquina fotográfica).
sexta-feira, 4 de novembro de 2011
terça-feira, 1 de novembro de 2011
A opinião de Paul Krugman (crise do euro)
"Eurodämmerung
Things are falling apart in Europe; the center is not holding. Papandreou is going to hold a referendum; the vote will be no. Italian 10-years at 6.29 at pixel time; that’s a level at which the cost of rolling over the existing debt will force a default, even though Italy has a primary surplus. And with everyone simultaneously pushing for fiscal austerity, a recession seems almost certain, aggravating all of the continent’s problems.
I’ve been charting this trainwreck for a couple of years, and am feeling too weary to trace through it again right now. Let’s just say that the euro was an inherently flawed idea that can work only given a strong European economy and a significant degree of inflation, plus open-ended credit to sovereigns facing speculative attack. Yet European elites embraced the notion of economics as morality play, imposing across-the-board austerity, tightening money despite low underlying inflation, and have been too concerned with punishing sinners to notice that everything was going to blow apart without an effective lender of last resort.
The question I’m trying to answer right now is how the final act will be played. At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France.
It all sounds apocalyptic and unreal. But how is this situation supposed to resolve itself? The only route I see to avoid something like this involves the ECB totally changing its spots, fast.
Aside from that, Mr. Draghi, are you enjoying your new job?"
Things are falling apart in Europe; the center is not holding. Papandreou is going to hold a referendum; the vote will be no. Italian 10-years at 6.29 at pixel time; that’s a level at which the cost of rolling over the existing debt will force a default, even though Italy has a primary surplus. And with everyone simultaneously pushing for fiscal austerity, a recession seems almost certain, aggravating all of the continent’s problems.
I’ve been charting this trainwreck for a couple of years, and am feeling too weary to trace through it again right now. Let’s just say that the euro was an inherently flawed idea that can work only given a strong European economy and a significant degree of inflation, plus open-ended credit to sovereigns facing speculative attack. Yet European elites embraced the notion of economics as morality play, imposing across-the-board austerity, tightening money despite low underlying inflation, and have been too concerned with punishing sinners to notice that everything was going to blow apart without an effective lender of last resort.
The question I’m trying to answer right now is how the final act will be played. At this point I’d guess soaring rates on Italian debt leading to a gigantic bank run, both because of solvency fears about Italian banks given a default and because of fear that Italy will end up leaving the euro. This then leads to emergency bank closing, and once that happens, a decision to drop the euro and install the new lira. Next stop, France.
It all sounds apocalyptic and unreal. But how is this situation supposed to resolve itself? The only route I see to avoid something like this involves the ECB totally changing its spots, fast.
Aside from that, Mr. Draghi, are you enjoying your new job?"
domingo, 23 de outubro de 2011
quarta-feira, 19 de outubro de 2011
terça-feira, 4 de outubro de 2011
Outubro
Azul, azul intenso de Outubro, da luz intensa de Outubro, de um Outubro quente e luminoso, de um Outubro cálido e calmo, longe da sua imagem habitual, longe das gigantescas massas atlânticas de ar húmido tropical!
Dias quentes em Outubro
O que surpreende, por estes dias, é a estabilidade do anticiclone subtropical dos Açores. "Aninhou-se", formando um "chapéu" que abarca a região da Biscaia e que traz uma vaga de ar quente até às nossas latitudes. Seja através de um núcleo, seja através de uma crista, a presença desta massa de ar quente vinda do norte de África, tem sido muito constante no tempo. O resultado está à vista: um elevado número de noites tropicais. Se fosse verão as máximas facilmente ultrapassariam os 40ºC, mesmo no litoral.
A situação sinóptica:
A que correspondem estes dias luminosos, quentes e muito calmos:
Tudo isto contrasta (e muito) com a turbulência financeira, económica e social que está a esmagar a nossa frágil democracia.
A situação sinóptica:
A que correspondem estes dias luminosos, quentes e muito calmos:
Tudo isto contrasta (e muito) com a turbulência financeira, económica e social que está a esmagar a nossa frágil democracia.
Subscrever:
Mensagens (Atom)